Hey Market Pilots,Once again, my rule of waiting until the day after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes release worked again. It was a little trickier this time as the market opened with a gap up the next morning and seemed as though all was going to be well. But the market proceeded to sell off hard for the first half of the day, then rally just as hard the second half of the day and close exactly where it opened. What the heck? Usually, if there is going … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes were released yesterday and when this happens, sometimes the market can get very “exciting”. The excitement comes in because we don’t know how the market is going to react to the sentiment from the Fed. Often, I’ve found, it’s not the moves two hours directly following the announcement that are telling, but instead it’s how the market moves the day after. So by the time you are reading this, we will already know how the market has decided to digest … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, The Nasdaq (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY) had very strong runs the other week. So strong, that they pushed up and outside their daily 3 Average True Range (ATR)s and clearly needed a rest after that. That rest would either come in the form of a pullback or a sideways flag. Given that the SPY had reached its 3 ATR two prior times last year on June 9 and September 2, I figured this time could behave similarly and price would drop fairly strongly to the daily … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, Sometimes the market gets into a funk and just isn’t very conducive for trading certain styles. That has been the case for my momentum-based swing trade style. Instead of just twiddling my thumbs all day while I wait it out, I practice to keep myself engaged and sharp. One way that I practice is reviewing my past trades and making notes on what went right and what went wrong. This helps solidify your rules and techniques for future trades. Make some notes on the charts, screen capture … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, On February 17, the market changed in a big way for me. This is when all of the high beta names I was trading so well started to falter, disintegrate, and plunge for the next two months. There were a few residual moves in some of the “reopening” names, and then Big Tech took off while my old go-to names continued to falter. There were many Moxie Indicator™ setups occurring, from Elf Shoe moves to Trampoline moves, but it was hit or miss for which would actually … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, Well, it was an active day in the cryptos with the Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) Initial Public Offering (IPO). The new ticker COIN ran up massive value in the hours prior to opening, debuting around $400, and peaking at $430 before it careened downward. Its final closing price was practically at the lows at $327. Many of the Bitcoin-related names caught bids last week and were up to today, most likely with the expectation that the COIN release would cause a flurry of action to the upside. … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, It has been several weeks since the names I traded with great rewards ran out of steam and all pulled back 30-60%. These names are in the process of bottoming, but it sure is taking time so I need to do more scanning and looking around to find the group of tickers which are having success.  We know that certain groups and sectors are hot, while others are dormant or declining. The goal is to find where these sectors are at the beginning of the rotation into … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, The other day I was talking with a few guys who manage an investment fund. The conversation focused on where the market stands as far as its overall health and the duration of the bull run. This is a relevant topic of concern since many names pulled back 40-60% or more and given back most of their gains during the run that extended as far back as November. If your charts are too zoomed in, say, on the daily and hourly charts, you would be seeing a … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, When the markets were pulling back during the end of April and the beginning of March, I was chronicling the movements of the QQQ. Primarily because the QQQ was beginning to form the first half of a reliable pattern of mine which I call an Elf Shoe or double bottom. You can find the article HERE. But I will include the screenshot from that date so we can compare what I was projecting at the time, to what actually unfolded. I was pretty darn close in projecting … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, Right now, I’m feeling like I’m stuck between a rock and a hard place. I took two small trades, which if they work, might only go for two days.  The SPY is near all-time highs as it keeps bumping along the Daily 50 SMA. On the surface, this should be fine, but I just am not getting the sense of strength around the market. It’s an odd push and pull because the SPY is up and many names are at double bottoms, which if these formations hold … Read more