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What are different time frames trying to tell you?

April 8, 2021

Hey Market Pilots,The other day I was talking with a few guys who manage an investment fund. The conversation focused on where the market stands as far as its overall health and the duration of the bull run. This is a relevant topic of concern since many names pulled back 40-60% or more and given back most of their gains during the run that extended as far back as November. If your charts are too zoomed in, say, on the daily and hourly charts, you would be seeing a deep … Read more

QQQ Completed the Elf Shoe

April 5, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, When the markets were pulling back during the end of April and the beginning of March, I was chronicling the movements of the QQQ. Primarily because the QQQ was beginning to form the first half of a reliable pattern of mine which I call an Elf Shoe or double bottom. You can find the article HERE. But I will include the screenshot from that date so we can compare what I was projecting at the time, to what actually unfolded. I was pretty darn close in projecting … Read more

Two day trade?

March 31, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, Right now, I’m feeling like I’m stuck between a rock and a hard place. I took two small trades, which if they work, might only go for two days.  The SPY is near all-time highs as it keeps bumping along the Daily 50 SMA. On the surface, this should be fine, but I just am not getting the sense of strength around the market. It’s an odd push and pull because the SPY is up and many names are at double bottoms, which if these formations hold … Read more

Tickers retesting lows

March 29, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, The week of March 15th, many of the names I trade were approaching their ascending Hourly 50 SMA’s which is a common spot for me to look at buying. This is because, usually, price bounces off that area and resumes the uptrend. But this time it was different, those MA’s didn’t hold, and price continued lower. So now what? First, you step back and reassess the situation since the initial setup I look for didn’t hold. What is the next kind of setup that could present itself … Read more

Inverse Trampoline, becoming a big deal

March 24, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, The markets look as though they are in slow motion as they run out of upward momentum and begin to decline. But under the surface, individual tickers are getting pummeled. The landscape of those tickers should be the indication, or guides, as to what may be in store for the major indexes.  Another indicator that showed up the week of March 15th was a Daily Inverse Trampoline on the SPY. As part of my Moxie Indicator trading rules, an inverse trampoline setup can be a very bearish … Read more

Not so fast

March 22, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, Last week, I wrote about how the market reacted to the Fed news and Jerome Powell speaking, saying that the market was satisfied with the pullback leading up to that news. What I didn’t do was wait a day for confirmation. The other piece I wrote (Market at New Highs, but Wait), is also more relevant than ever now that more time has passed so go check it out.  On the day Powell spoke, the markets shot up afterward which seemed to indicate that they were happy … Read more

A satisfied market

March 18, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, We finally got the pullback I was looking for, and then the market decided that whatever the Fed and Jerome Powell said was acceptable, so everything was bought up. I’ll cover the QQQ later and follow up with the projection I had with it, but for now, the SPY and IWM pulled back to the areas I was looking for. The SPY pretty much tapped H50, but I have a sneaking suspicion that there could still be some odd movement this week as options expire. The IWM … Read more

New market highs, but wait

March 15, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, I enjoy old phrases we use like “it’s darkest before dawn” or “it was in the last place you looked” due to their hidden obviousness. Of course, it’s in the last place you looked, why would you keep looking after you found it? I know that isn’t the heart of the phrase, but it makes me think of ways in which the market works and our psychology. Here is a phrase to ponder: “a downtrend is always preceded by a high or a new high”. So when … Read more

Looking for the elf shoe in the QQQ

March 11, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, In the continuing saga of this market pullback, as I have been writing about it every step of the way, the process has actually been rather orderly. In this write-up, I am switching to the QQQ because it has a clearer visual for what it is I am looking for. On Monday, the QQQ moved down with pretty good force, putting continued fear and doubt into market participants. Then on Tuesday, there was a huge rally and the formation became clear- It was a perfect double bottom … Read more

Flush-Out Rebound

March 8, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, Previously, I wrote about how the market was getting hammered and many names were very low. I was posing the question of when will the markets bounce? Maybe the end of February since things had become so oversold. But I cautioned that we should not be in a hurry to jump in just because of this oversold condition. That would be what we refer to as catching a falling knife, and I tell people that in my eyes, trying to buy the dip just because price is … Read more

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