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Market Flares On Fed

December 1, 2022

The market on Wednesday took Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comment about slowing rate hikes to 50 basis points at the December meeting as the path to easier monetary conditions and reacted strongly bullish. The Volatility Index (VIX) and the ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF (UVXY) are in areas that I would expect them to turn, but they haven’t. I will also take the market as bullish until we see that change again. I also typically see price test the daily 50-day simple moving average (SMA) to confirm … Read more

Follow Holiday Sales

November 28, 2022

It’s that time of the year where we open our wallets and purses and spend for the holiday sales. But does holiday spending activity affect the market in a way that we can take advantage of as traders? Let’s take a look at some numbers and historical trends to see what might unfold this year. The run through the holiday season will present economic ebbs and flows that influence the stock market. How do you trade this market through the end of the year? Members of my Moxie Indicator™ Mastery … Read more

VIX and SPY Correlation

November 21, 2022

Let’s go back this year and look at how the Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500 (SPY) have lined up. The correlation is pretty strong, plus the lower trendline on the VIX has done well. This indicates to me that you need to be very careful on the long side. The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. How do you trade this market through the end of the year? Members of my Moxie Indicator™ Mastery Program learn how to combine fast-moving … Read more

Overbought Burn Off?

November 17, 2022

The market got really overbought from the straight up two-day move after a cooler U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. I have been expecting the market to pull back or flag in order to fix that condition, and it seems we are getting that. I am not sure how much further up it will go as I am getting clues that ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) wants to base compared to the market rising. Let’s take a look: The final quarter of this year is full of economic … Read more

Will New Buyers Enter the Market?

November 14, 2022

After a big 2-day move from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, we are looking for signs to indicate whether the long side of the market is real and sustainable or if this was a big short squeeze. I believe we are still in a bear market and the bottom is not in, but can we find some trades on the long side to work with? The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. How do you trade this market through the end … Read more

Market Pops On CPI

November 10, 2022

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at +0.3% instead of the expected +0.5% and the market is popping on this cooler than expected reading. Is this a legitimate move? Is the market going to have a bull run and will the Federal Reserve now pivot? Still too early to say, since we need to see how today is digested. Heck, even a few days to see how it’s digested. But when I look around out there, the market is still generally weak and I would be cautious about … Read more

Peak Inflation to Sticky Inflation

November 7, 2022

While we might have seen peak inflation, we might be coming into a time of sticky inflation. This is a time when inflation will stay elevated, which means the Fed will continue on its hawkish path to keep rates higher for longer. The Fed has tools to fix and stimulate a down economy, but they don’t have very many tools to tackle inflation. So as Powell said, they would rather over-tighten, than under-tighten. The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. How do … Read more

Wild FOMC Move

November 3, 2022

Another crazy event this week involving the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Chairman Jerome Powell remained hawkish and the market responded. In typical FOMC manner, the first market move was very strong and happened to be upward. Then, after about an hour, the buzz wore off and the market realized Powell wasn’t messing around and so the market started to sell off. Was the down move a surprise? No, and let me show you why: The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. … Read more

Ease Up Or Tougher?

October 31, 2022

The bumpy ride from earnings season last week will probably continue as traders await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting results on Wednesday. A 75 basis point raise in the benchmark interest rate is expected, but then we need to see how Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell guides the central bank going forward. Will Powell still be hawkish, or will he have a softer tone which could lead traders to feel like the worst is behind? FOMC days are usually pretty quiet until the report comes out, then it’s … Read more

Tech In Trouble?

October 27, 2022

The market has been moving up since Friday on the news of the Federal Reserve (Fed) possibly getting easier with interest rate raises. But can that last, and is the market really accepting it? According to TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and now META, there is more weakness out there and we need to respect that. Let’s review the issues in play: The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. How do you trade this market through the end of the year? Members of my … Read more

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