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Peak Inflation to Sticky Inflation

November 7, 2022

While we might have seen peak inflation, we might be coming into a time of sticky inflation. This is a time when inflation will stay elevated, which means the Fed will continue on its hawkish path to keep rates higher for longer. The Fed has tools to fix and stimulate a down economy, but they don’t have very many tools to tackle inflation. So as Powell said, they would rather over-tighten, than under-tighten. The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. How do … Read more

Wild FOMC Move

November 3, 2022

Another crazy event this week involving the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Chairman Jerome Powell remained hawkish and the market responded. In typical FOMC manner, the first market move was very strong and happened to be upward. Then, after about an hour, the buzz wore off and the market realized Powell wasn’t messing around and so the market started to sell off. Was the down move a surprise? No, and let me show you why: The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. … Read more

Ease Up Or Tougher?

October 31, 2022

The bumpy ride from earnings season last week will probably continue as traders await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting results on Wednesday. A 75 basis point raise in the benchmark interest rate is expected, but then we need to see how Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell guides the central bank going forward. Will Powell still be hawkish, or will he have a softer tone which could lead traders to feel like the worst is behind? FOMC days are usually pretty quiet until the report comes out, then it’s … Read more

Tech In Trouble?

October 27, 2022

The market has been moving up since Friday on the news of the Federal Reserve (Fed) possibly getting easier with interest rate raises. But can that last, and is the market really accepting it? According to TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and now META, there is more weakness out there and we need to respect that. Let’s review the issues in play: The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. How do you trade this market through the end of the year? Members of my … Read more

Moxie Shines On Apple

October 24, 2022

Now that time has passed, I want to show how the Moxie Indicator™ worked exceptionally well with Apple, Inc. (AAPL) for both the long and short direction. The moves incorporated the exact same setups and principles for each direction. Come check it out and see if the Moxie Indicator™ can help you with your trading. Let’s review the setups: The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. How do you trade this market through the end of the year? Members of my Moxie … Read more

SPY to downside?

October 20, 2022

It seems to me the market is going to drift upward, but the path is unclear. And while we could look to play the bullish side, I think the bigger move will be down once the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and its daily 50-day simple moving average (SMA) meet. Let’s review this wild action: There are many economic variables influencing the stock market this year. How do you trade this ever-changing environment? Members of my Moxie Indicator™ Mastery Program learn how to combine fast-moving signals and track movement … Read more

One-Day Wonder

October 17, 2022

Following up from the newsletter I put out before the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, my expected direction of lower was correct. And then the short squeeze kicked in. A burner of a day for the shorts had them on the run as price rose all day long. Was it going to last? Was this going to be the start of a more major upside move? According to Friday price action, the big squeeze seems to be a one-day wonder. Let’s review this wild action There are many economic … Read more

CPI Then, Now

October 13, 2022

Since I recorded this a day before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, let’s see how things unfolded from where they were before. The market looks heavy and it would make sense to keep dropping. The only thing that would get it to pop is a surprise CPI, and then we don’t even know if it will sustain or be a pop-n-flop. Let’s take a look at what I’ve seen: There are many economic variables influencing the stock market this year. How do you trade this ever-changing environment? Members of … Read more

Will Double Bottom Hold?

October 10, 2022

The stock market closed last week at the June lows and at a very critical spot with the pullback Friday. Can it hold for now and move to a bear flag to the upside for a while? Or will the market fall apart from here? In case the market moves to some strength, there are a few names out there showing relative strength for traders to follow. Here’s what I’m seeing after last week: There are many economic variables influencing the stock market this year. How do you trade this … Read more

VIX Down, Market Up?

October 6, 2022

It looks like the market developed an undercut and rally with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) midweek, and that would also be defined as a “bear trap” since we closed on the lows Friday then reversed on Monday. Some indications that there could be more upside with the market comes from the Volatility Index (VIX) – the “fear” index – being in an area that it typically reverses. Plus, negative Moxie Indicator™ divergence on the hourly chart supports the idea. Let’s take a look at what to watch: … Read more

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