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Don’t Trust Upside Moves?

October 4, 2021

Hey Market Pilot,Last week, we saw the market continue down from the inverse trampoline move. That decline was heavy for the week and flagged sideways into more resistance on a 15-minute time frame. This gave us yet another leg down and actually broke the previous lows from Monday, Sept. 20.   As for market action, there is definitely a possibility for the bottom to fall out from and for the market to drop even further. But there is also the chance this is a bear trap to lure in all the … Read more

Inverse Trampoline Maneuver

September 30, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, Last week, I stated that I was wary of the market bounce from Monday the 20th’s big drop. The market never goes in a straight line and when we get such a big move down like that, price often needs to retest support from those lows sometime in the future.  So the bounce from the 20th’s low was fairly easy and a reasonable play, but as referenced in my last newsletter, the bounce was likely into resistance. For the Moxie Indicator™ members, that resistance is what I … Read more

Travel Back On?

September 27, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, Last week, I wrote a piece about the S&P 500 (SPY) fading below the daily 50 simple moving average (SMA). In that article, I cautioned about shorting the market because I didn’t know how many opportunities there might be. Turns out there was a nice drop, but you either had to be in the day before or trade it the day of because it didn’t even last an entire market session. The SPY tapped the weekly 21 exponential moving average (EMA) on this past Monday and that … Read more

No Tapering… For Now.

September 23, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes were released along with Jerome Powell fielding questions. Pretty much everything stayed the same, but they are conditioning the market to expect tapering, someday. Perhaps they would have been a little tougher on the taper talk if it weren’t for the Evergrande event. So they came in with another wait-and-see position. We know that tapering will have to happen at some point, but will the market implode on the news? I think tapering as the catalyst for the start of … Read more

Take Caution Shorting…

September 20, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, Last week, we continued to see the market drift lower as it had been heavy all week. It started when the S&P 500 (SPY) could not hold the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) as support, so then it was onto the daily 50 simple moving average (SMA) where it got about one day’s worth of support. The bounce of price at that level was then met by overhead resistance with the hourly 50 SMA. Then Friday, on Quad Witching, the markets sold off all day and … Read more

Wrong Side Of A Buy-Out

September 16, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, I think most of us know that even though insider trading is illegal it still probably happens. Mostly because in order to have deals done, somebody knows something and there are people who want to be able to take advantage of the deal. I don’t think there is the ability to enforce who knows what, at what time, for every situation. We also know that there are big players out there who can move the market and push price around to grab liquidity for their advantage. Yesterday … Read more

September Seasonally Weak

September 13, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, This weekend was the 20th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attack on our country. I like to take a moment and appreciate and recognize those who worked hard to help save as many lives as they could and those who lost their lives in that tragedy. I know it seems like there is a lot of divisiveness and uneasiness in our country and politics right now, but we can think back to 20 years ago when a tragedy like that helped us to realize maybe not … Read more

Watch For ‘Holiday Buys’

September 9, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, The market has a few sayings that help give some guidance as to its seasonality and behavior. Arguably, the most commonly known ones are “sell in May and go away,” “buy the rumor, sell the news,” and “don’t short a quiet market.” But the one that pertains to this week which might be a little lesser-known is “sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur.” Rosh Hashanah, also known as the Jewish New Year, started this week. This means that those in the Jewish religion who also participate in … Read more

Happy Labor Day!

September 9, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, Today is Labor Day and the stock market is closed which means we get to enjoy a three-day weekend to refresh and regroup. Labor Day weekend is a time to remember the American workforce which has had its trials and tribulations over more than a century as it has made a lot of progress for the well-being of workers going into the future. Where we are today and the benefits that we get to enjoy came as a result of the hard work that generations before us … Read more

S&P 500 Rising…

September 2, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, I have been discussing recently how the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have been trending up relentlessly, but underneath the surface the breadth was poor and many stocks were declining. The indexes I have been using to help demonstrate that poor breadth have been the Russell 2000 and the IBD 50 (FFTY) since they were basically going sideways for the last six months. Now that those two indexes are starting to move up and provide energy for the small caps, along with the market more broadly, let’s … Read more

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