TG Watkins Ever since the bear market started, I have been using the monthly 10-day simple moving average (SMA) as a guideline. If the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is under it, we are bearish. If over, bullish. Well, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comment last week about slowing benchmark interest rate hikes at the … Read more
The market on Wednesday took Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comment about slowing rate hikes to 50 basis points at the December meeting as the path to easier monetary conditions and reacted strongly bullish. The Volatility Index (VIX) and the ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF (UVXY) are in areas that I would expect … Read more
It’s that time of the year where we open our wallets and purses and spend for the holiday sales. But does holiday spending activity affect the market in a way that we can take advantage of as traders? Let’s take a look at some numbers and historical trends to see what might unfold this year. … Read more
Let’s go back this year and look at how the Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500 (SPY) have lined up. The correlation is pretty strong, plus the lower trendline on the VIX has done well. This indicates to me that you need to be very careful on the long side. The final quarter of … Read more
The market got really overbought from the straight up two-day move after a cooler U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. I have been expecting the market to pull back or flag in order to fix that condition, and it seems we are getting that. I am not sure how much further up it will go … Read more
After a big 2-day move from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, we are looking for signs to indicate whether the long side of the market is real and sustainable or if this was a big short squeeze. I believe we are still in a bear market and the bottom is not in, but can … Read more
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at +0.3% instead of the expected +0.5% and the market is popping on this cooler than expected reading. Is this a legitimate move? Is the market going to have a bull run and will the Federal Reserve now pivot? Still too early to say, since we need … Read more
While we might have seen peak inflation, we might be coming into a time of sticky inflation. This is a time when inflation will stay elevated, which means the Fed will continue on its hawkish path to keep rates higher for longer. The Fed has tools to fix and stimulate a down economy, but they … Read more
Another crazy event this week involving the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Chairman Jerome Powell remained hawkish and the market responded. In typical FOMC manner, the first market move was very strong and happened to be upward. Then, after about an hour, the buzz wore off and the market realized Powell wasn’t messing around and … Read more
The bumpy ride from earnings season last week will probably continue as traders await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting results on Wednesday. A 75 basis point raise in the benchmark interest rate is expected, but then we need to see how Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell guides the central bank going forward. Will … Read more