Hey Market Pilot,All eyes have been on the inflation numbers, both consumer (CPI) and producer (PPI). This is because inflation is an old foe that America has had to fight. If left unchecked, it can get out of hand. We are familiar with the stories in the past from other countries where people were moving money around in wheelbarrows just to purchase a loaf of bread. This is the fear that is ingrained in our memories when we worry about inflation and look for even the slightest hint of it. … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, With the status of the economy at play every time an economic report comes out, sectors related to its performance have been moving around in all directions. If a report says the economy is weak for example, then value stock and gold rise. If the economy is strong, then growth stocks rise and gold goes down. But what if a strong economy throws in a few other variables like inflation and a strong dollar? In this case, with a recent jobs report, we say that inflation outpaced … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, The markets have been on fire for months, but that isn’t necessarily the case beneath the surface. Despite the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq trucking along and making new all-time highs, there is a large contingent of tickers not doing well. One thought is that perhaps these stocks are cycling down into better buy points since they had moved up so strongly in 2020. The question is ─ when are those stocks going to come back alive? I think it is going to be based on the … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, Earnings season is in full swing, and it has been a wild one. We have seen all sorts of reactions out there with very polar results like Amazon (AMZN) down hard but Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) up huge. It’s tough to know exactly which way these binary events will go, so I prefer to stay away until the dust settles. Traders ask me how close to earnings am I willing to hold a stock, and then how soon after am I willing to get back in? If the … Read more

Hey Market Pilot,  Once again the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held a meeting. How will this influence the market this time? A few years ago the release of their minutes would mean wild volatility immediately and usually into the daily close. But over the course of time, that volatility has morphed into a relatively calm two hours after the release, and then a surprise move the next day. All of this happens when the FOMC, or Fed, may not even change anything in their statements. They could print the … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, It seems like we are in the time of one-day pullbacks. Despite “bad breadth” and the indexes being held up by a handful of names, all we needed was one stiff day to the downside and that provided enough of an opportunity for buyers to step in and buy the dip ─ hard. I have been contemplating an idea, and I don’t know if it’s true or possible, but here it is. We are all thinking the market is going to roll over and get pulled down … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, The market has had a few wild swings lately. While the down move was the easier one to catch, staying out of the market during times like these can be a wise option, too. As traders we certainly have an urge and itch to always be in the action and making trades, but if you find yourself losing money then maybe it isn’t your kind of activity. By not losing money, you are actually staying wealthier so it should be viewed as a positive when staying in … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, We finally got the pullback I have been looking for, but this is only the beginning. We had a dip on July 8, but that dip was bought and price did not get rejected by the 15-minute, 50 simple moving average (SMA). This moving average is what I use to initially see where a move is going. While I was looking for it on July 9, it didn’t happen and therefore no short trade. Then we got another break last week on July 15 and this put … Read more

Have you heard this? “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” This idea sure seems to be ringing true for anyone trying to short the market lately. I am also in the “how is the market staying up” camp, but I have made it a general rule of mine to not go short. Therefore while I am watching the indexes, primarily the QQQ continue to reach new highs day after day, I am astonished by the movement but not doing anything about it. What makes this … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, The old saying “you can’t see the forest through the trees” means that sometimes you are too close to see the bigger picture. When you are in the middle of the trees, you can only see for a short distance and you don’t know if you are in a massive rain forest or just a small patch of foliage. The same can be said for stocks. If you are down on the five-minute chart trading all day, you may forget the bigger picture of what the stock … Read more