Tuesday we have the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers coming out and then Wednesday is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While most of us have expectations of what is coming, the reaction of the market will be what is important and telling. Going into these reports I am laying low and only looking to day trade since the market has gone pretty wild on several of the last big news releases. Let’s take a look at this calm before the storm: Expect more volatility as the stock … Read more

Based on my typical Moxie Indicator™ price patterns, I would expect the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) to head to its daily 50-day simple moving average (SMA). After that, we need to assess whether the market is bullish or bearish. The bullish case could be that the slowing of interest rate hikes news kicks in later instead of when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell broke the news in his last speech. The bearish case would just be more of the same action we have been seeing. Keep you head … Read more

Ever since the bear market started, I have been using the monthly 10-day simple moving average (SMA) as a guideline. If the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is under it, we are bearish. If over, bullish. Well, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comment last week about slowing benchmark interest rate hikes at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, we now have the SPY over its monthly 10-day SMA. If this sticks, then I have to conclude we are bullish, but the month isn’t over yet. Let’s … Read more

The market on Wednesday took Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comment about slowing rate hikes to 50 basis points at the December meeting as the path to easier monetary conditions and reacted strongly bullish. The Volatility Index (VIX) and the ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF (UVXY) are in areas that I would expect them to turn, but they haven’t. I will also take the market as bullish until we see that change again. I also typically see price test the daily 50-day simple moving average (SMA) to confirm … Read more

It’s that time of the year where we open our wallets and purses and spend for the holiday sales. But does holiday spending activity affect the market in a way that we can take advantage of as traders? Let’s take a look at some numbers and historical trends to see what might unfold this year. The run through the holiday season will present economic ebbs and flows that influence the stock market. How do you trade this market through the end of the year? Members of my Moxie Indicator™ Mastery … Read more

Let’s go back this year and look at how the Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500 (SPY) have lined up. The correlation is pretty strong, plus the lower trendline on the VIX has done well. This indicates to me that you need to be very careful on the long side. The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. How do you trade this market through the end of the year? Members of my Moxie Indicator™ Mastery Program learn how to combine fast-moving … Read more

The market got really overbought from the straight up two-day move after a cooler U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. I have been expecting the market to pull back or flag in order to fix that condition, and it seems we are getting that. I am not sure how much further up it will go as I am getting clues that ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) wants to base compared to the market rising. Let’s take a look: The final quarter of this year is full of economic … Read more

After a big 2-day move from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, we are looking for signs to indicate whether the long side of the market is real and sustainable or if this was a big short squeeze. I believe we are still in a bear market and the bottom is not in, but can we find some trades on the long side to work with? The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. How do you trade this market through the end … Read more

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at +0.3% instead of the expected +0.5% and the market is popping on this cooler than expected reading. Is this a legitimate move? Is the market going to have a bull run and will the Federal Reserve now pivot? Still too early to say, since we need to see how today is digested. Heck, even a few days to see how it’s digested. But when I look around out there, the market is still generally weak and I would be cautious about … Read more

While we might have seen peak inflation, we might be coming into a time of sticky inflation. This is a time when inflation will stay elevated, which means the Fed will continue on its hawkish path to keep rates higher for longer. The Fed has tools to fix and stimulate a down economy, but they don’t have very many tools to tackle inflation. So as Powell said, they would rather over-tighten, than under-tighten. The final quarter of this year is full of economic variables influencing the stock market. How do … Read more