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Sector rotation

June 4, 2020

Hey Market Pilots, Sector rotation. What exactly is it? The words seem simple enough to deduce what it means, but let’s take a deeper dive since we are right in the middle of one. As you may already know, the market is made up of different sectors. There are the semis, healthcare, REITs, materials, home builder, tech, small caps, big caps, retail just to name a few. There are a bunch of different sectors and some of the stocks find themselves in more than one sector.  As money moves around … Read more

When do divergences matter?

June 1, 2020

Hey Market Pilots, As the market climbs higher and higher, we continue to wonder just how long this can be sustained. Many of us have been proven wrong in the recent past when we tried to short the market but it just kept going up despite our indicators. Since then, I have directed our subscribers to be careful on the short side; To really only expect a short trade to be a reversion to the mean from an overbought rally. While this has been the case for quite some time, … Read more

Fish out of water

May 28, 2020

Often times trying to short a top or pinpoint the exact moment that price is going to roll over and start a new downtrend is extremely difficult. This is because tops are messy and bounce a lot as larger traders try to unload their shares and others are trying to continue the long run. Comparatively, bottoms tend to be specific points in time, quicker, or more decisive.  This can be seen rather easily in the months of trading from the COVID-19 meltdown. The low at the end of March was … Read more

Memorial Day Weekend

May 26, 2020

Hey Market Pilots, As a trader, I have grown accustomed to having access to my money and the ability to liquidate my positions at a moment’s notice. It’s a major factor in why I like trading as an investment vehicle. I don’t have to wait for someone to be interested in my property, worry if my investment goes out of style, or is at risk of water damage. But for two days a week I have to pause that accessibility while the world still turns.  In the grand scheme of … Read more

The digital money printer

May 21, 2020

Hey Market Pilots, The last week’s worth of market movement has been intense in both directions and driven based on two different statements from the same person: the Fed chairman, Jerome Powell. It began on May 12th when Powell said in an interview that the recovery of the economy was going to be longer and more difficult than they originally expected. I am sure most of us were thinking “duh, welcome to the real world.” The markets didn’t like this and sold off hard for nearly two full days. Interestingly, … Read more

Road maps

May 18, 2020

Hey Market Pilots, While we know that 80% of stocks follow the market, I have found that the path of individual stocks can act as a sort of road map for the future of the market itself. For example: The SPY is between the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages on both the Daily and Hourly chart. This is a very confusing location to be as we don’t know which moving average is going to be the stronger one; a very important piece of knowledge since it’s the difference between … Read more

Recognize your FOMO

May 14, 2020

I’ll be honest, I was feeling FOMO (fear of missing out) last week and this week. Numerous stocks were popping from earnings reports, which is a whole different article, and stocks like AAPL just kept grinding upwards. I had several subscribers ask me my opinion about AAPL and where it was going to go. I had expressed caution about its ascent since I could see it only had strength on a lower time frame like the 15 minutes. This is all fine and dandy as long as that held, but … Read more

Will there be resistance overhead?

May 11, 2020

All week the market had crawled up no matter what news came out about the economy or virus. We all have first and second hand experience about what damage is being caused along with the ripple effects that are waiting in the wings.

How the market’s offending logic

May 7, 2020

“The market can stay irrational longer than your account can stay solvent.”  I love this phrase for so many reasons. I say it to myself anytime I just can’t believe what the market is doing — when things simply don’t make sense or I wonder just how much further this can go or how much longer this can last. I have to remind myself to take a step back and not fight the tape and go with what the market wants right now. I am a small fish in a … Read more

SPY where do we go from here?

April 27, 2020

The markets this week have started off strong after last week’s dip and consolidation. Many, including myself, were looking at the short side last week since the S&P (SPY) was coming into a down trending daily 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA). Often this Moving Average (MA) is significant and results in a hard bounce or rejection, depending on which side price falls, but that is not the case this time. SPY price was rejected by the underside of the Daily 50 SMA twice last week, but then managed to close … Read more

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