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Inverse Trampoline, becoming a big deal

March 24, 2021

Hey Market Pilots,The markets look as though they are in slow motion as they run out of upward momentum and begin to decline. But under the surface, individual tickers are getting pummeled. The landscape of those tickers should be the indication, or guides, as to what may be in store for the major indexes.  Another indicator that showed up the week of March 15th was a Daily Inverse Trampoline on the SPY. As part of my Moxie Indicator trading rules, an inverse trampoline setup can be a very bearish indication. … Read more

Not so fast

March 22, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, Last week, I wrote about how the market reacted to the Fed news and Jerome Powell speaking, saying that the market was satisfied with the pullback leading up to that news. What I didn’t do was wait a day for confirmation. The other piece I wrote (Market at New Highs, but Wait), is also more relevant than ever now that more time has passed so go check it out.  On the day Powell spoke, the markets shot up afterward which seemed to indicate that they were happy … Read more

A satisfied market

March 18, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, We finally got the pullback I was looking for, and then the market decided that whatever the Fed and Jerome Powell said was acceptable, so everything was bought up. I’ll cover the QQQ later and follow up with the projection I had with it, but for now, the SPY and IWM pulled back to the areas I was looking for. The SPY pretty much tapped H50, but I have a sneaking suspicion that there could still be some odd movement this week as options expire. The IWM … Read more

New market highs, but wait

March 15, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, I enjoy old phrases we use like “it’s darkest before dawn” or “it was in the last place you looked” due to their hidden obviousness. Of course, it’s in the last place you looked, why would you keep looking after you found it? I know that isn’t the heart of the phrase, but it makes me think of ways in which the market works and our psychology. Here is a phrase to ponder: “a downtrend is always preceded by a high or a new high”. So when … Read more

Looking for the elf shoe in the QQQ

March 11, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, In the continuing saga of this market pullback, as I have been writing about it every step of the way, the process has actually been rather orderly. In this write-up, I am switching to the QQQ because it has a clearer visual for what it is I am looking for. On Monday, the QQQ moved down with pretty good force, putting continued fear and doubt into market participants. Then on Tuesday, there was a huge rally and the formation became clear- It was a perfect double bottom … Read more

Flush-Out Rebound

March 8, 2021

Hey Market Pilot, Previously, I wrote about how the market was getting hammered and many names were very low. I was posing the question of when will the markets bounce? Maybe the end of February since things had become so oversold. But I cautioned that we should not be in a hurry to jump in just because of this oversold condition. That would be what we refer to as catching a falling knife, and I tell people that in my eyes, trying to buy the dip just because price is … Read more

Inverse trampoline setup

March 4, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, The market had a pretty rough day on March 3rd, but your accounts probably already told you that. I know mine did when all my stops got hit over the course of a few days. And with all that fresh cash burning a hole in our pockets, I know we were itching to put it to good use. The SPY seemed to have found a bottom when it hit the Daily 50 SMA, and many traders were looking to go long into that support. But I knew … Read more

Will the market bounce?

March 1, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, This has been a brutal couple of weeks in the market with February’s seasonal weakness kicking in hard. When the winds change and the market falls apart, my stops get hit and before I know it, I am in cash. And right now cash is a beautiful place to be as most of the names I keep an eye on just keep melting down.  The moves to the downside have been deeper and longer than I expected, but that’s ok when you are sitting on the sidelines. … Read more

Seasonality came through

February 25, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, Last week, I wrote about how February is normally seasonally weak. It took a couple of weeks for it to kick in, but when it did, it meant business. During my class last weekend, someone asked me, “What happens with your account if the market stops going up?”.  Pretty appropriate question given the recent action. I told them that that was the beauty of using stops for my trading because when the market changes character, my positions get stopped out left and right. This not only protects … Read more

What I’m looking at next week

February 22, 2021

Hey Market Pilots, It has been a heck of a week for us in the market as February seasonal weakness appears to be kicking in. There was a flurry of activity on 2/10/21 due to the market liquidation break, which actually produced my first double million dollar account gain (you can catch the summary of that here). Then the markets started to pullback as interest rates began to spike up and put some negative pressure on the small caps. For my style of trading, it is time to reassess and … Read more

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