Hey Market Pilots,
On February 17, the market changed in a big way for me. This is when all of the high beta names I was trading so well started to falter, disintegrate, and plunge for the next two months. There were a few residual moves in some of the “reopening” names, and then Big Tech took off while my old go-to names continued to falter.
There were many Moxie Indicator™ setups occurring, from Elf Shoe moves to Trampoline moves, but it was hit or miss for which would actually work. Market conditions were so bad it felt like I had forgotten how to trade. I kept pouring over my charts trying to see what was going on and what was different. As I was doing so, I came across Redfin (RDFN) as a pretty good example of what I was seeing and experiencing.
RDFN, a discount real estate broker, has been under its daily 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) three times in recent history. The first two times price recovered and began a new uptrend. Each of these times, it followed the Moxie Indicator™ rules cleanly. (See examples below.)
This brings us to the third time and the latest date. Once again RDFN is under the daily 50 SMA, but it isn’t going up. It is just trading sideways. And if you look at the hourly, you can see it won’t hold any support (pictured below).
This looks pretty concerning to me, as any weakness in the market could be what helps drop RDFN lower. With exchange-traded funds in the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) so high and RDFN not participating in that move, I don’t see, at this point, why RDFN would suddenly find some strength.
Your Profit Pilot, TG.