Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 12.03.15 PM

How to time a pullback

Hey Market Pilots,

It’s said that you can’t time the market. I’d like to talk with those who say that and show them how I trade. Can I change their mind? You tell me.

This week, we saw the market pullback, which was something I was warning about even the week prior. I could see the signs that begin to indicate the market and price are getting extended and likely in need of a refresh. Let me show you how the Moxie Indicator helped me see it coming.

Here on the QQQ 15 min, you can see that price had been moving up steadily along the 50 SMA. This is all well and good, but energy had been deteriorating for a few days — something that price wasn’t clueing anyone into. But if we look at Moxie, we can clearly see the deterioration as price continued up, while the indicator trended down, eventually parking itself under the zero line. This is what I call negative divergence and is a stark warning sign. The signal for the break was when price spent time at the 15 min 50, then failed.

The next metric I use is the 3rd ATR and this one was most relevant on the daily time frame. The 3rd ATR is great for determining when price is at its outer range and likely to pullback. Case in point, the QQQ Daily hit that outer market perfectly (pink arrow) and then dropped. Talk about timing.

I’d like to remain strongly bullish on the market, but we need to wait for the pullback to finish. There will be a bounce, there always is. The question will be: what happens after the bounce? For that answer, we will simply have to watch and look for the signs that the market is either healthy or could be getting into the early stages of weakening. Be sure to watch other names out there for signs as well. If none of your setups are working, that could be a clue. So far for me, the sailing is still smooth.

Over and Out, 

Your Profit Pilot.

If you are having trouble making money in the market or figuring out how to interpret charts, join me live on Wednesdays at 10:30 CT. I navigate the markets and answer your ticker questions in real-time. If it resonates with you, I would be thrilled to have you on the journey.

3 thoughts on “How to time a pullback”

  1. Thanks TG,
    Good insight offered in your December 14 article. I really like your approach and picking style. The confirmation process totally works. Still learning andI will definitely renew my subscription when it is close to expiration.


Leave a Comment


Move from reacting to predicting market flow. Join TG’s “Profit Pilot” E-Letter to get actionable insights from his chart analysis so that you can finally catch trends on time.

We will never sell your information to any third parties.

Free Stuff

The Moxie Method
What if you could look beyond price and identify big moves in stocks before they happen? Now is your chance to discover how TG achieved 103% account growth with his Moxie Stock Method in a little over a year.

7 Fastest Ways to Ruin Your Trading Account

Join TG as he walks through his strategy for avoiding surprises, temptations and risky positions while trading. Download

How to Navigate Volatile Markets
Navigating a volatile market can be made easier by having a good balance of knowing the market context and environment, plus solid trading rules for your specific tickers.”