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Fish out of water

Often times trying to short a top or pinpoint the exact moment that price is going to roll over and start a new downtrend is extremely difficult. This is because tops are messy and bounce a lot as larger traders try to unload their shares and others are trying to continue the long run. Comparatively, bottoms tend to be specific points in time, quicker, or more decisive. 

This can be seen rather easily in the months of trading from the COVID-19 meltdown. The low at the end of March was a pretty sharp point (point in time) and the reversal was quick. Then, we had a shallow retesting of the lows which was also a quick point in time. These low points were followed by pretty strong up trends which have carried for quite some time.

Since then, the market has been meandering upward with the occasional magnetic draw to levels such as the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements. That magnetism has caused price to pull away from support, leaving a void for price to forcefully drop into once it has hit those overhead resistance areas.

Much of this action, and having reached these technical levels, makes me wonder if the market is starting to form the apex of its upward trajectory from the March lows. We don’t know yet and the picture is still being drawn. But if it is, it won’t be clean or easy as people battle over position and the Fed prints money like it’s never printed before. Tops tend to be messy and I expect this one to be extra sloppy since there is so much influence being thrown at the market.

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