The market keeps grinding and the S&P is still near its highs. Most investors assume the coast is clear, but the index level alone does not show you what is happening beneath it. Under the surface, the action is already turning.
In this video, I break down how I read that turn using seasonality two ways: the plain calendar and the four-year presidential cycle. July normally runs bullish, while August and September tend to go weak. Year two, the midterm year, is historically one of the weakest, usually with a correction before a bottom forms in October or November. I walk through the election cycle composite, the midterm patterns, and one gauge most people skip: VIX seasonality. The VIX is sitting awfully low, and it tends to perk up into the fall. VIX up means market down. Under the hood, the Dow, the $RSP, and the $IWM are already weakening while the S&P holds up. Semis got extended and could use a breather. This is not a bear market call. It is a reason to stay patient and wait for a cleaner setup instead of chasing a tired move.
Your Profit Pilot,
TG Watkins
Even in a market I’m cautious on, there are still ways to pull income out of the tape. Henry just broke down his unbalanced butterfly approach for 0DTE income, one of the cleaner ways to stay active when you don’t want to chase direction. If you missed it live, the replay is up and worth your time.
